Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ram Squadloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ram Squad
Spirit Breakersignature
BliNcc · 8 games
Clinkz
w33 · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
kAAN · 4 games
Puckoften banned
canceL^^ · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
canceL^^ · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Flash · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
w33 · 2 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Rubick
Daze · 14 games
Techiesoften banned
Daze · 12 games
Mirana
Riddys · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 10 games
Dragon Knight
Ri4man · 10 games
Magnussignature
pma · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 9 games
Pangoliersignature
Ri4man · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
439 picks · 210 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 516 bans
Techies
330 picks · 344 bans
Batrider
306 picks · 522 bans
Morphling
297 picks · 577 bans
Undying
294 picks · 481 bans
Timbersaw
277 picks · 657 bans
Storm Spirit
257 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Ram Squad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:36
Ram Squad 46%Natus Vincere Junior 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 30:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokerw33
Svengotthejuice
SlarkkAAN
Dragon Knightpma
Legion CommanderBliNcc
Ember Spirittoshiyb
IoFlash
MiranaDaze
50% · 12 games
WarlockRiddys
Game 2prediction correct24:51
Ram Squad 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 28:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenkAAN
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
BrewmasterBliNcc
Void Spirittoshiyb
Primal Beastw33
Vengeful Spiritpma
IoFlash
MarciDaze
38% · 21 game
GrimstrokeRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 62%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2