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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravenswin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
goonsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ravens

Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 14 games
14%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
d1smar · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
PiPi · 9 games
22%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
29%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%

goons

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Giant · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
80%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
AfrOmoush · 5 games
80%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Boris · 3 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Lil_Nick · 3 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Boris · 3 games
100%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Giant · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Lil_Nick · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
750 picks · 612 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
612 picks · 533 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
551 picks · 1090 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1334 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
478 picks · 532 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
470 picks · 962 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1156 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
450 picks · 643 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 67%
Hero pool strength66% goons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:19
Ravens 44%goons 56%
The model gave 56% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 31:22.
Game 2prediction correct22:4
Ravens 44%goons 56%
The model gave 56% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 21:26.
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 56%
Series resultRavens 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2