?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravenswin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Infamousloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ravens

Visage
Visagesignature
Benjaz · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 10 games
20%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
d1smar · 10 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Benjaz · 6 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
d1smar · 6 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
DaaD- · 6 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 6 games
33%

Infamous

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Oscar · 9 games
44%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
sl4d1n- · 6 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Mjz · 4 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
sl4d1n- · 3 games
67%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Mjz · 3 games
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sl4d1n- · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
387 picks · 376 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
343 picks · 349 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
319 picks · 226 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
277 picks · 280 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
203 picks · 148 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
203 picks · 110 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
199 picks · 255 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
190 picks · 514 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 28%
Hero pool strength51% Ravens
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:15
Ravens 45%Infamous 55%
The model gave 55% on Infamous — the game was taken by Ravens in 40:36.
Game 2prediction correct13:38
Ravens 45%Infamous 55%
The model gave 55% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 30:42.
Game 3prediction missed31:19
Ravens 45%Infamous 55%
The model gave 55% on Infamous — the game was taken by Ravens in 34:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 55%
Series resultRavens 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3