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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravensloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
No Limits Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ravens

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 13 games
46%
Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 12 games
8%
Snapfire
Snapfire
d1smar · 8 games
38%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 7 games
14%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
PiPi · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 6 games
33%

No Limits Gaming

Doom
Doomoften banned
drakesh1t · 3 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
Zxca · 3 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Zxca · 2 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Zxca · 2 games
100%
Silencer
Silencer
CHAAANNN · 2 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
drakesh1t · 2 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JP · 2 games
100%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
JP · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
908 picks · 620 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
642 picks · 447 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
540 picks · 870 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
537 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 434 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
482 picks · 330 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
471 picks · 1014 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
441 picks · 317 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 75%
Hero pool strength67% No Limits Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% No Limits Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:11
Ravens 43%No Limits Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by Ravens in 23:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingParker
53% · 114 games47% · 131 game
KunkkaAlone
Kunkka
Pangolier
PangolierTaO
54% · 245 games49% · 166 games
Drow RangerJP
Drow Ranger
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBenjaz
53% · 141 game40% · 240 games
Doomdrakesh1t
Doom
Rubick
Rubickd1smar
55% · 302 games45% · 73 games
Dark WillowZxca
Dark Willow
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiCara
53% · 22 games51% · 214 games
SilencerCHAAANNN
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct16:40
Ravens 42%No Limits Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinParker
56% · 198 games52% · 186 games
Nature's Prophetdrakesh1t
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierTaO
48% · 369 games50% · 181 game
Monkey KingJP
Monkey King
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderBenjaz
52% · 57 games49% · 168 games
BatriderAlone
Batrider
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkd1smar
47% · 283 games45% · 277 games
SnapfireZxca
Snapfire
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiCara
50% · 62 games53% · 157 games
DawnbreakerCHAAANNN
Dawnbreaker
Game 3prediction correct33:43
Ravens 43%No Limits Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 40:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightParker
46% · 185 games54% · 274 games
Nature's ProphetJP
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTaO
47% · 412 games50% · 225 games
Doomdrakesh1t
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBenjaz
50% · 267 games51% · 101 game
UnderlordAlone
Underlord
Mirana
Miranad1smar
53% · 368 games52% · 479 games
RubickZxca
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroCara
43% · 91 game52% · 244 games
UndyingCHAAANNN
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Limits Gaming · 57%
Series resultNo Limits Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3