DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
RCHloss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bakri Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RCH
No games played over 6 months.
Bakri Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
357 picks · 344 bans
Hoodwink
354 picks · 406 bans
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 508 bans
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 262 bans
Windranger
279 picks · 387 bans
Dragon Knight
276 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% RCH
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% RCH
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
RCH 58%Bakri Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on RCH — the game was taken by Bakri Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
RCH 58%Bakri Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on RCH — the game was taken by RCH.
Game 3prediction missed
RCH 58%Bakri Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on RCH — the game was taken by Bakri Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteRCH · 58%
Series resultBakri Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3