Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionRRectifyloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MMUKAKUDAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rectify
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MangO · 9 games
Snapfire
Sans · 7 games
Tiny
Ponyo · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 6 games
Marcioften banned
Ws · 5 games
Tusk
Ws · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 4 games
Hoodwink
Sans · 4 games
MUKAKUDA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
776 picks · 596 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 448 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 380 bans
Beastmaster
415 picks · 976 bans
Nature's Prophet
406 picks · 688 bans
Undying
400 picks · 594 bans
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 915 bans
Mirana
390 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% MUKAKUDA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% MUKAKUDA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Rectify 41%MUKAKUDA 59%
The model gave 59% on MUKAKUDA — the game was taken by MUKAKUDA.
Game 2prediction correct
Rectify 41%MUKAKUDA 59%
The model gave 59% on MUKAKUDA — the game was taken by MUKAKUDA.
Model check result
Model favoriteMUKAKUDA · 59%
Series resultMUKAKUDA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2