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Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Red Hot Chili Pibbleloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Red Hot Chili Pibble

No games played over 6 months.

Team Nemesis

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 20 games
60%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 18 games
56%
Windranger
Windranger
Q · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 16 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 16 games
44%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 15 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
588 picks · 361 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
487 picks · 579 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
479 picks · 256 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 384 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
397 picks · 547 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
337 picks · 901 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
330 picks · 832 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
319 picks · 467 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:27
Red Hot Chili Pibble 33%Team Nemesis 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMnz
53% · 243 games55% · 180 games
Terrorbladerubikon155
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAlone
46% · 409 games53% · 171 game
Nature's ProphetJabz
Nature's Prophet
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMjz
48% · 192 games46% · 323 games
Pangolier4nalog
Pangolier
Bane
BanePrada
54% · 246 games48% · 34 games
Winter WyvernYamSun
Winter Wyvern
47% · 382 games
TuskLelis
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct
Red Hot Chili Pibble 19%Team Nemesis 81%
The model gave 81% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 81%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2