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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
REKONIXwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kopiteloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

REKONIX

Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dalul · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Varizh · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dalul · 4 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Varizh · 4 games
75%
Bane
Bane
Varizh · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 3 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshrac
inYourdreaM · 3 games
0%

Kopite

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Bombi · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Bombi · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
LOyd · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
GaN- · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
GaN- · 2 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
GaN- · 2 games
0%
Oracle
Oracle
Bombi · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
GaN- · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
346 picks · 321 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
328 picks · 827 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
301 picks · 150 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
287 picks · 321 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 774 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
273 picks · 245 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
270 picks · 123 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
267 picks · 171 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% REKONIX
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:18
REKONIX 64%Kopite 36%
The model gave 64% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 55:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTraVins
47% · 90 games54% · 253 games
EarthshakerGaN-
Earthshaker
Puck
PuckinYourdreaM
46% · 141 game52% · 254 games
WarlockLOyd
Warlock
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFbz
43% · 84 games
Silencer
SilencerVarizh
53% · 68 games
Tusk
Tuskdalul
48% · 124 games
Game 2prediction missed17:37
REKONIX 66%Kopite 34%
The model gave 66% on REKONIX — the game was taken by Kopite in 29:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordTraVins
47% · 35 games50% · 133 games
LeshracGaN-
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritinYourdreaM
55% · 91 game50% · 197 games
DisruptorLOyd
Disruptor
Mars
MarsFbz
40% · 61 game
Dark Willow
Dark Willowdalul
52% · 72 games
Pugna
PugnaVarizh
56% · 71 game
Game 3prediction correct23:11
REKONIX 65%Kopite 35%
The model gave 65% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 28:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTraVins
49% · 124 games53% · 309 games
Ember SpiritGaN-
Ember Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PaininYourdreaM
54% · 110 games48% · 178 games
DisruptorLOyd
Disruptor
Mars
MarsFbz
45% · 79 games
Tusk
Tuskdalul
49% · 151 game
Oracle
OracleVarizh
52% · 23 games
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 76%
Series resultREKONIX 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3