Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
REKONIX
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 23 games
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 17 games
Kezsignature
TraVins · 16 games
Phoenixoften banned
Varizh · 16 games
Puckoften banned
inYourdreaM · 16 games
Rubick
dalul · 16 games
Mentality Monster
Silencer
Juju · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
GaN- · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
OneJey · 2 games
Luna
Cije · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
Rubick
OneJey · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Juju · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
603 picks · 375 bans
Rubick
497 picks · 270 bans
Phoenix
493 picks · 580 bans
Tiny
465 picks · 389 bans
Pangolier
407 picks · 565 bans
Puck
342 picks · 933 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 867 bans
Tusk
332 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Mentality Monster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:14
REKONIX 65%Mentality Monster 35%
The model gave 65% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 49:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomTraVins
Naga SirenCije
TimbersawFbz
PangolierGaN-
PuckinYourdreaM
Primal Beastegxrdemxn
Rubickdalul
Keeper of the LightOneJey
LichVarizh
SilencerJuju
Game 2prediction missed12:40
REKONIX 66%Mentality Monster 34%
The model gave 66% on REKONIX — the game was taken by Mentality Monster in 34:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomFbz
TinyCije
Faceless VoidTraVins
SnapfireGaN-
PuckinYourdreaM
Batrideregxrdemxn
Hoodwinkdalul
SilencerJuju
EnchantressVarizh
LargoOneJey
Game 3prediction correct35:18
REKONIX 65%Mentality Monster 35%
The model gave 65% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyTraVins
Naga SirenCije
PuckinYourdreaM
Axeegxrdemxn
Primal BeastFbz
SnapfireGaN-
Techiesdalul
MuertaOneJey
SilencerVarizh
TuskJuju
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 80%
Series resultREKONIX 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3