ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
REKONIX
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 14 games
Tinyoften banned
inYourdreaM · 13 games
Tusksignature
dalul · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 10 games
Gyrocoptersignature
TraVins · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 9 games
Queen of Painsignature
inYourdreaM · 9 games
Team Yandex
Jakirosignature
Malady · 42 games
Tusksignature
Malady · 39 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 30 games
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 23 games
Tinyoften banned
Saksa · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
662 picks · 821 bans
Tiny
572 picks · 591 bans
Tusk
471 picks · 409 bans
Warlock
468 picks · 314 bans
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1073 bans
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 694 bans
Mars
382 picks · 622 bans
Shadow Fiend
382 picks · 992 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total93% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:35
REKONIX 21%Team Yandex 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 35:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenTraVins
Templar AssassinWatson
UnderlordFbz
DoomNoticed
PuckinYourdreaM
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
Pudgedalul
TinySaksa
PhoenixVarizh
OracleMalady
Game 2prediction correct11:35
REKONIX 19%Team Yandex 81%
The model gave 81% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 31:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendTraVins
UrsaWatson
Ember SpiritinYourdreaM
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Primal BeastFbz
AxeNoticed
Spirit Breakerdalul
WarlockMalady
JakiroVarizh
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 93%
Series resultTeam Yandex 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2