RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Rest Farmersloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MarsBet Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
MarsBet Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 21 game
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Mr. Luck · 12 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
Lion
Bignum · 11 games
Luna
Lukas · 11 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
464 picks · 743 bans
Mars
432 picks · 693 bans
Techies
429 picks · 345 bans
Tiny
421 picks · 548 bans
Batrider
415 picks · 896 bans
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
Crystal Maiden
396 picks · 176 bans
Rubick
389 picks · 192 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
Rest Farmers 66%MarsBet Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 27:00.
Game 2prediction missed15:51
Rest Farmers 66%MarsBet Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 39:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 66%
Series resultMarsBet Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2