BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
RISE Esportswin 2:0series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monaspaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RISE Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 302 bans
Tusk
278 picks · 252 bans
Marci
273 picks · 524 bans
Undying
253 picks · 453 bans
Pangolier
237 picks · 507 bans
Primal Beast
221 picks · 547 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 317 bans
Crystal Maiden
203 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 65%
Hero pool strength50% RISE Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:8
RISE Esports 20%Monaspa 80%
The model gave 80% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 33:32.
Game 2prediction correct39:21
RISE Esports 20%Monaspa 80%
The model gave 80% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 38:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 80%
Series resultRISE Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2