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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
ukiyo · 11 games
27%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 11 games
18%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 10 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LOyd · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 9 games
33%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
25%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ukiyo · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
43%

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 31 game
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 26 games
46%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 26 games
38%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 25 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 20 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 18 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 539 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
531 picks · 407 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
477 picks · 537 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
470 picks · 238 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 412 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
394 picks · 244 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1014 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 911 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:28
Roar Gaming 31%1w Team 69%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 23:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistukiyo
48% · 86 games49% · 196 games
Monkey Kingv1olent-
Monkey King
Underlord
Underlord生死
50% · 267 games48% · 343 games
Pangolierмистер мораль
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void SpiritButterflyEffect
52% · 470 games49% · 604 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCatYou
54% · 436 games53% · 94 games
VenomancerRein
Venomancer
Jakiro
JakiroLOyd
45% · 554 games51% · 576 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed41:21
Roar Gaming 29%1w Team 71%
The model gave 71% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 45:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painukiyo
46% · 314 games48% · 376 games
Tinyv1olent-
Tiny
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker生死
50% · 168 games50% · 207 games
Void SpiritSquad1x
Void Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
59% · 408 games49% · 149 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Venomancer
VenomancerLOyd
49% · 99 games51% · 220 games
Slardarмистер мораль
Slardar
Lion
LionCatYou
52% · 94 games46% · 131 game
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct13:27
Roar Gaming 29%1w Team 71%
The model gave 71% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 46:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackukiyo
55% · 204 games49% · 251 game
Monkey Kingv1olent-
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
43% · 357 games51% · 447 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
Phoenix生死
46% · 238 games51% · 238 games
Tidehunterмистер мораль
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCatYou
52% · 336 games46% · 207 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerLOyd
57% · 109 games52% · 101 game
VenomancerRein
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 85%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3