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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
eSpoiledwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
CatYou · 13 games
62%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
RedPanda · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
生死 · 9 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 8 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
CatYou · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
生死 · 7 games
71%

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 34 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Wein · 24 games
54%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 24 games
58%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 20 games
70%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 20 games
55%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 19 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
600 picks · 300 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
527 picks · 526 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 1084 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
357 picks · 187 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 590 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
347 picks · 391 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
344 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
336 picks · 260 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Roar Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:34
Roar Gaming 49%eSpoiled 51%
The model gave 51% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 53:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
50% · 103 games54% · 224 games
Abaddonssnovv1
Abaddon
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainUlu
49% · 219 games48% · 301 game
Ember SpiritDifference
Ember Spirit
Axe
Axe生死
52% · 80 games54% · 69 games
Pudgemrls
Pudge
Snapfire
SnapfireCatYou
46% · 172 games52% · 252 games
Pugnaasdekor_r
Pugna
Tusk
TuskRedPanda
44% · 272 games
Game 2prediction correct20:30
Roar Gaming 49%eSpoiled 51%
The model gave 51% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
49% · 227 games55% · 87 games
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Troll Warlord
Razor
RazorUlu
51% · 29 games53% · 270 games
Ember SpiritDifference
Ember Spirit
Marci
Marci生死
44% · 138 games48% · 221 game
Snapfireasdekor_r
Snapfire
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCatYou
41% · 21 game52% · 38 games
Pudgemrls
Pudge
Disruptor
DisruptorRedPanda
52% · 201 game
Game 3prediction correct1:17
Roar Gaming 48%eSpoiled 52%
The model gave 52% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 13:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
Axe生死
36% · 61 game59% · 150 games
Ursassnovv1
Ursa
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerButterflyEffect
38% · 4 games47% · 107 games
LeshracDifference
Leshrac
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlu
51% · 168 games52% · 195 games
Snapfireasdekor_r
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorCatYou
51% · 233 games49% · 154 games
Hoodwinkmrls
Hoodwink
Marci
MarciRedPanda
52% · 140 games
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 51%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3