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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ivoryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 11 games
27%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LOyd · 10 games
30%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 10 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 10 games
30%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ukiyo · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 7 games
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
14%

Ivory

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 10 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Teehee · 8 games
13%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Rupido · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Dric~ · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Karma丶 · 6 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Teehee · 6 games
17%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Rupido · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
615 picks · 576 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
513 picks · 405 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 399 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
448 picks · 500 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
436 picks · 217 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
406 picks · 251 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
387 picks · 1034 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 884 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Ivory
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Ivory
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:5
Roar Gaming 49%Ivory 51%
The model gave 51% on Ivory — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 30:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeukiyo
52% · 127 games54% · 93 games
LunaKarma丶
Luna
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker生死
48% · 107 games50% · 191 game
Sand KingKen
Sand King
Slardar
SlardarButterflyEffect
57% · 165 games49% · 122 games
Dark SeerRupido
Dark Seer
Silencer
SilencerLOyd
54% · 92 games39% · 161 game
RubickDric~
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCatYou
49% · 226 games49% · 150 games
DazzleTeehee
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed26:13
Roar Gaming 47%Ivory 53%
The model gave 53% on Ivory — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingukiyo
52% · 161 game47% · 241 game
GyrocopterKarma丶
Gyrocopter
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
49% · 251 game51% · 181 game
Sand KingKen
Sand King
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker生死
51% · 149 games50% · 159 games
UnderlordRupido
Underlord
Silencer
SilencerLOyd
45% · 126 games60% · 295 games
Shadow DemonDric~
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCatYou
52% · 402 games44% · 213 games
PhoenixTeehee
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteIvory · 54%
Series resultRoar Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2