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ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
CatYou · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
RedPanda · 17 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 14 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RedPanda · 12 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CatYou · 12 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 12 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 11 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 11 games
55%

Vici Gaming

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 10 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
89%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 8 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 8 games
38%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 8 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Dy · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
575 picks · 923 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 410 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 659 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
490 picks · 630 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
421 picks · 909 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 628 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 518 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
365 picks · 224 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total88% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:37
Roar Gaming 27%Vici Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 47:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendukiyo
53% · 116 games50% · 223 games
Windrangershiro
Windranger
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
49% · 153 games43% · 69 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Underlord
Underlord生死
48% · 89 games53% · 112 games
BrewmasterFaith_bian
Brewmaster
Tusk
TuskLOyd
40% · 310 games65% · 68 games
Treant Protectory`
Treant Protector
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeCatYou
60% · 19 games47% · 215 games
Dark WillowpLAnet
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct12:31
Roar Gaming 25%Vici Gaming 75%
The model gave 75% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 30:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritButterflyEffect
46% · 195 games53% · 155 games
Marcishiro
Marci
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterukiyo
48% · 284 games58% · 356 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Brewmaster
Brewmaster生死
52% · 66 games51% · 259 games
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Lion
LionCatYou
39% · 66 games52% · 288 games
Shadow DemonpLAnet
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroLOyd
49% · 464 games46% · 17 games
Ioy`
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 88%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2