IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Россияwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Кыргызстанloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Россия
No games played over 6 months.
Кыргызстан
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
372 picks · 593 bans
Tiny
328 picks · 217 bans
Undying
304 picks · 542 bans
Primal Beast
251 picks · 479 bans
Pangolier
247 picks · 373 bans
Tusk
237 picks · 144 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 274 bans
Enigma
210 picks · 715 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Россия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Россия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:10
Россия 52%Кыргызстан 48%
The model gave 52% on Россия — the game was taken by Россия in 31:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkTTR
MorphlingKami
Pangolierchambi
Ember SpiritAskold
VenomancerLimitless
MarsBlizzy
Tiny[T]SA
Miranasunset
45% · 73 games
SilencerGreen
Game 2prediction correct
Россия 51%Кыргызстан 49%
The model gave 51% on Россия — the game was taken by Россия.
Model check result
Model favoriteРоссия · 51%
Series resultРоссия 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2