IESF World Championship 2021. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Россияwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Туркменистанloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Россия
No games played over 6 months.
Туркменистан
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
364 picks · 177 bans
Hoodwink
332 picks · 121 bans
Lina
273 picks · 495 bans
Mars
257 picks · 429 bans
Luna
253 picks · 342 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 335 bans
Nyx Assassin
246 picks · 515 bans
Terrorblade
234 picks · 484 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Россия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Россия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:18
Россия 72%Туркменистан 28%
The model gave 72% on Россия — the game was taken by Россия in 23:38.
Game 2prediction correct11:57
Россия 72%Туркменистан 28%
The model gave 72% on Россия — the game was taken by Россия in 26:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteРоссия · 72%
Series resultРоссия 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2