Rottweilas vs Team Syntax — prediction Paragon Turbina · Dota 2

Paragon Turbina · BO1

result vs prediction

RRottweilasloss 0:1

series probability

38%62%

probability at match start · final 0:1

TSTeam Syntaxwin 1:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rottweilas

Bristlebackoften banned

Vitaly · 1 game

Juggernaut

DaaD- · 1 game

Techies

Michael · 1 game

Winter Wyvern

Gardick · 1 game

Team Syntax

Tusksignature

Stoic · 6 games

67%

Axeoften banned

emptiness · 3 games

100%

Phoenix

Jeezy · 3 games

33%

Beastmasteroften banned

emptiness · 2 games

100%

Invokeroften banned

Jeezy · 2 games

50%

Largooften banned

Jeezy · 2 games

100%

Snapfireoften banned

emptiness · 2 games

50%

Warlock

Stoic · 2 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

495 picks · 355 bans

53%

Rubick

384 picks · 233 bans

46%

Clockwerk

337 picks · 636 bans

56%

Tiny

336 picks · 346 bans

50%

Windranger

316 picks · 230 bans

49%

Pangolier

298 picks · 396 bans

52%

Bane

294 picks · 283 bans

61%

Storm Spirit

286 picks · 312 bans

45%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%

Hero pool strength60% Team Syntax

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total62% Team Syntax

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct17:36

Rottweilas 44%Team Syntax 56%

The model gave 56% on Team Syntax — the game was taken by Team Syntax in 29:55.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

TinyDaaD-

39% · 259 games46% · 75 games

Kunkkaemptiness