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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Royal Never Give Up

No games played over 6 months.

Aster.Aries

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
TK · 11 games
82%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
RedPanda · 10 games
70%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
RedPanda · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Xwy · 7 games
86%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Ulu · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xwy · 6 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ulu · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
721 picks · 570 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
502 picks · 1020 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
494 picks · 656 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
479 picks · 813 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
372 picks · 424 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
331 picks · 162 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
328 picks · 391 bans
47%
Razor
Razor
304 picks · 584 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:21
Royal Never Give Up 70%Aster.Aries 30%
The model gave 70% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 29:10.
Game 2prediction missed29:11
Royal Never Give Up 70%Aster.Aries 30%
The model gave 70% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 37:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 70%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2