The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
BOOM Esports
Marssignature
Fbz · 31 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 22 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
Rubick
Tims · 16 games
Tiny
Yopaj · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Miranasignature
Tims · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
500 picks · 394 bans
Marci
437 picks · 671 bans
Death Prophet
298 picks · 463 bans
Puck
289 picks · 697 bans
Dawnbreaker
284 picks · 397 bans
Undying
261 picks · 467 bans
Winter Wyvern
253 picks · 332 bans
Batrider
249 picks · 849 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:19
Royal Never Give Up 47%BOOM Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 51:38.
Game 2prediction correct24:23
Royal Never Give Up 47%BOOM Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:10:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 53%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2