Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dynastyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Dynasty
Mirana
Hy · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Hy · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Hy · 1 game
Tusk
Hy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
137 picks · 304 bans
Mars
134 picks · 247 bans
Earth Spirit
120 picks · 98 bans
Void Spirit
115 picks · 169 bans
Phoenix
104 picks · 115 bans
Keeper of the Light
89 picks · 157 bans
Nyx Assassin
85 picks · 306 bans
Rubick
85 picks · 41 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:17
Royal Never Give Up 53%Dynasty 47%
The model gave 53% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Dynasty in 35:18.
Game 2prediction missed7:38
Royal Never Give Up 53%Dynasty 47%
The model gave 53% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Dynasty in 25:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 53%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2