OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 19 games
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 18 games
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
438 picks · 179 bans
Hoodwink
325 picks · 126 bans
Nyx Assassin
319 picks · 626 bans
Puck
314 picks · 690 bans
Ancient Apparition
308 picks · 477 bans
Mars
296 picks · 526 bans
Dragon Knight
270 picks · 341 bans
Lina
265 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 69%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total86% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:19
Royal Never Give Up 14%LGD Gaming 86%
The model gave 86% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 38:23.
Game 2prediction correct18:35
Royal Never Give Up 14%LGD Gaming 86%
The model gave 86% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 37:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 86%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2