Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Centaur Warrunner
Xxs · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Monet · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
LaNm · 2 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Monet · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
White丶Album · 1 game
Rubickoften banned
BoBoKa · 1 game
Zeusoften banned
White丶Album · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
37 picks · 69 bans
Puck
32 picks · 79 bans
Earth Spirit
29 picks · 22 bans
Void Spirit
27 picks · 42 bans
Mirana
24 picks · 28 bans
Ember Spirit
23 picks · 27 bans
Monkey King
23 picks · 42 bans
Phoenix
22 picks · 33 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength62% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:22
Royal Never Give Up 50%Team Aster 50%
The model gave 50% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Team Aster in 44:54.
Game 2prediction missed12:34
Royal Never Give Up 50%Team Aster 50%
The model gave 50% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 50%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2