OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 23 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 21 game
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 20 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
Treant Protector
LaNm · 15 games
Axesignature
Xxs · 14 games
Lion
BoBoKa · 14 games
Lunasignature
LaNm · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
437 picks · 184 bans
Hoodwink
335 picks · 128 bans
Nyx Assassin
314 picks · 626 bans
Puck
310 picks · 678 bans
Ancient Apparition
303 picks · 470 bans
Mars
295 picks · 522 bans
Dragon Knight
272 picks · 344 bans
Lina
262 picks · 358 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total64% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:19
Royal Never Give Up 36%Team Aster 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 46:28.
Game 2prediction correct33:23
Royal Never Give Up 36%Team Aster 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:07.
Game 3prediction correct10:28
Royal Never Give Up 36%Team Aster 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 26:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 64%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3