Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Banesignature
Dy · 14 games
Marssignature
Srf · 14 games
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 13 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 11 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 11 games
Templar Assassinsignature
lou · 11 games
Wraith Kingsignature
lou · 11 games
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
428 picks · 271 bans
Mars
412 picks · 546 bans
Tiny
366 picks · 424 bans
Death Prophet
340 picks · 694 bans
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 448 bans
Sand King
300 picks · 401 bans
Weaver
266 picks · 313 bans
Pangolier
264 picks · 392 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 71%
Hero pool strength62% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:31
Royal Never Give Up 47%Xtreme Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:41.
Game 2prediction correct32:19
Royal Never Give Up 47%Xtreme Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 35:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 53%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2