Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Marssignature
Srf · 15 games
Banesignature
Dy · 14 games
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 13 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 13 games
Ursaoften banned
lou · 12 games
Wraith Kingsignature
lou · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 11 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
456 picks · 277 bans
Mars
439 picks · 595 bans
Tiny
403 picks · 471 bans
Sand King
354 picks · 482 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 767 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 501 bans
Storm Spirit
310 picks · 459 bans
Pangolier
302 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 71%
Hero pool strength62% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total59% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:19
Royal Never Give Up 41%Xtreme Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:07.
Game 2prediction correct30:20
Royal Never Give Up 41%Xtreme Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:26.
Game 3prediction correct19:32
Royal Never Give Up 41%Xtreme Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 59%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3