The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ybb Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
731 picks · 571 bans
Puck
505 picks · 1022 bans
Dawnbreaker
486 picks · 645 bans
Marci
465 picks · 807 bans
Winter Wyvern
376 picks · 420 bans
Snapfire
334 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 391 bans
Razor
303 picks · 585 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:33
Royal Never Give Up 72%Ybb Gaming 28%
The model gave 72% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 36:39.
Game 2prediction missed26:6
Royal Never Give Up 72%Ybb Gaming 28%
The model gave 72% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 24:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 72%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2