CIS Battle · BO5
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 3:1series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 3:1
1w Teamloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 32 games
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 31 game
Dark Willow
queezy · 23 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 23 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 19 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 19 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 18 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 22 games
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SSS · 14 games
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 14 games
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
Jakiro
Hduo · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
581 picks · 589 bans
Tusk
373 picks · 421 bans
Dark Willow
366 picks · 217 bans
Tiny
366 picks · 372 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 510 bans
Terrorblade
333 picks · 700 bans
Puck
326 picks · 842 bans
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 633 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 70%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total77% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:33
Runa Team 34%1w Team 66%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 45:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusanesfeer
SvenMunkushi~
MarciAlberkaaa
BeastmasterSSS
Earthshakernicky`cool
LeshracSquad1x
WarlockHduo
Tinyswedenstrong
Batriderqueezy
Pugnakasane
Game 2prediction missed41:23
Runa Team 34%1w Team 66%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 39:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunanesfeer
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Faceless VoidMunkushi~
MarciAlberkaaa
DawnbreakerSSS
DisruptorHduo
Batriderswedenstrong
Dark Willowqueezy
Dazzlekasane
Game 3prediction correct22:38
Runa Team 33%1w Team 67%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windrangernicky`cool
DoomMunkushi~
Lunanesfeer
DazzleSSS
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
Monkey KingSquad1x
Tinyqueezy
Warlockkasane
DisruptorHduo
Marciswedenstrong
Game 4prediction missed38:16
Runa Team 32%1w Team 68%
The model gave 68% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 28:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Monkey Kingnesfeer
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
Primal Beastnicky`cool
AxeSSS
Batriderqueezy
Marciswedenstrong
DazzleHduo
Pugnakasane
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 77%
Series resultRuna Team 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4