FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AVULUSwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Windrangersignature
queezy · 13 games
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
queezy · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
Silencersignature
Hduo · 6 games
Slarksignature
Shigetsu · 6 games
AVULUS
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 37 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 26 games
Batrider
Ekki · 25 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mo13ei · 21 game
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 21 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 21 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
Phoenix
SoNNeikO · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
487 picks · 478 bans
Tiny
410 picks · 552 bans
Ringmaster
350 picks · 160 bans
Terrorblade
283 picks · 536 bans
Phantom Assassin
266 picks · 549 bans
Beastmaster
264 picks · 577 bans
Muerta
264 picks · 147 bans
Storm Spirit
264 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 30%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:19
Runa Team 35%AVULUS 65%
The model gave 65% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Runa Team in 42:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenShigetsu
BeastmasterMo13ei
UnderlordAlberkaaa
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Rikinicky`cool
Centaur WarrunnerXibbe
Windrangerqueezy
RingmasterdEsire
Ancient ApparitionHduo
Shadow ShamanFly
Game 2prediction correct13:22
Runa Team 35%AVULUS 65%
The model gave 65% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaShigetsu
BeastmasterMo13ei
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
RazorSmiling Knight
Rikinicky`cool
EnigmaXibbe
Windrangerqueezy
RingmasterFly
Ancient ApparitionHduo
EarthshakerdEsire
Game 3prediction correct41:45
Runa Team 36%AVULUS 64%
The model gave 64% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 1:02:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeShigetsu
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
KunkkaAlberkaaa
Queen of PainMo13ei
Batridernicky`cool
EnigmaXibbe
Windrangerqueezy
ClockwerkdEsire
Ancient ApparitionHduo
RingmasterFly
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 78%
Series resultAVULUS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3