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CCT Season 2 Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Hduo · 56 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 50 games
66%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 46 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 44 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 39 games
72%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 39 games
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 38 games
42%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
66%

AVULUS

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 18 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 17 games
41%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
dEsire · 16 games
19%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Xibbe · 15 games
60%
Marci
Marcioften banned
dEsire · 15 games
40%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Ekki · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
787 picks · 362 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
579 picks · 579 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
579 picks · 300 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 580 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
493 picks · 336 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 269 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
476 picks · 754 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 1111 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength57% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:12
Runa Team 51%AVULUS 49%
The model gave 51% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 33:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladenesfeer
51% · 457 games45% · 296 games
Dragon Knightssnovv1
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand Kingnicky`cool
51% · 303 games54% · 157 games
LycanCloud
Lycan
Pangolier
PangolierAlberkaaa
50% · 457 games52% · 309 games
Ember Spiritdualrazee
Ember Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magequeezy
41% · 67 games53% · 263 games
RingmasterImmersion
Ringmaster
Dazzle
DazzleHduo
54% · 115 games47% · 374 games
Jakiroasdekor_r
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct33:27
Runa Team 52%AVULUS 48%
The model gave 52% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 48:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopternesfeer
57% · 269 games54% · 330 games
Monkey Kingdualrazee
Monkey King
Puck
Pucknicky`cool
52% · 306 games39% · 35 games
Kezssnovv1
Kez
Marci
MarciAlberkaaa
58% · 153 games48% · 360 games
MarsCloud
Mars
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
48% · 264 games45% · 219 games
Enchantressasdekor_r
Enchantress
Warlock
WarlockHduo
47% · 225 games48% · 273 games
Shadow DemonImmersion
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 52%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2