FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Edgeloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 6 games
Windranger
queezy · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
queezy · 4 games
Ringmaster
Mary_y · 4 games
Warlock
Mary_y · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mary_y · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
nicky`cool · 3 games
Edge
Brewmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
Muerta
Michael · 4 games
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 4 games
Slardar
PiPi · 4 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
Elder Titan
Yadomi · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
payk · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Yadomi · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
454 picks · 440 bans
Tiny
419 picks · 589 bans
Ringmaster
312 picks · 142 bans
Phantom Assassin
309 picks · 621 bans
Muerta
287 picks · 163 bans
Bristleback
284 picks · 529 bans
Terrorblade
283 picks · 511 bans
Beastmaster
279 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Edge
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:40
Runa Team 40%Edge 60%
The model gave 60% on Edge — the game was taken by Runa Team in 49:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaShigetsu
Rikipayk
Tinynicky`cool
Monkey KingPiPi
BristlebackAlberkaaa
TidehunterVitaly
Windrangerqueezy
Ancient ApparitionYadomi
SilencerHduo
JakiroMichael
Game 2prediction missed28:18
Runa Team 41%Edge 59%
The model gave 59% on Edge — the game was taken by Runa Team in 25:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkShigetsu
Ursapayk
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
Ember SpiritPiPi
Tinynicky`cool
MagnusVitaly
Weaverqueezy
MuertaMichael
RingmasterHduo
Ancient ApparitionYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteEdge · 69%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2