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CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSpoiledloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 26 games
46%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 17 games
65%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 14 games
43%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 10 games
80%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 10 games
70%
Silencer
Silencer
Hduo · 9 games
56%

eSpoiled

Tusk
Tusksignature
Wein · 6 games
67%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Wein · 4 games
25%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ssnovv1 · 3 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 3 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
asdekor_r · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 590 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
477 picks · 437 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
469 picks · 236 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
369 picks · 760 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 509 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
337 picks · 778 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
322 picks · 290 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:20
Runa Team 59%eSpoiled 41%
The model gave 59% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 37:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShigetsu
36% · 48 games55% · 192 games
Svenssnovv1
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
52% · 143 games51% · 218 games
Shadow DemonWein
Shadow Demon
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
53% · 122 games53% · 82 games
Disruptorasdekor_r
Disruptor
Naga Siren
Naga SirenHduo
51% · 69 games
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
41% · 110 games
Game 2prediction correct31:7
Runa Team 60%eSpoiled 40%
The model gave 60% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 23:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShigetsu
50% · 36 games48% · 313 games
Terrorbladessnovv1
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
55% · 155 games38% · 30 games
TechiesWein
Techies
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
55% · 213 games51% · 164 games
Nature's Prophetasdekor_r
Nature's Prophet
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
42% · 53 games
Naga Siren
Naga SirenHduo
57% · 50 games
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 66%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2