CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSpoiledloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 32 games
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 31 game
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 18 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nicky`cool · 17 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 17 games
eSpoiled
Marcioften banned
Wein · 12 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 9 games
Batridersignature
Wein · 9 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 9 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 9 games
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 9 games
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 586 bans
Tiny
396 picks · 403 bans
Tusk
376 picks · 397 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 510 bans
Dark Willow
342 picks · 207 bans
Terrorblade
330 picks · 699 bans
Nature's Prophet
322 picks · 609 bans
Puck
321 picks · 790 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Runa Team
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total76% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:5
Runa Team 64%eSpoiled 36%
The model gave 64% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 29:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonShigetsu
Monkey Kingssnovv1
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Enchantressasdekor_r
MarsAlberkaaa
BatriderWein
Dark Willowqueezy
Crystal MaidenHduo
Game 2prediction correct21:9
Runa Team 65%eSpoiled 35%
The model gave 65% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 31:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendShigetsu
Abaddonssnovv1
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Naga Sirenasdekor_r
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Dark WillowWein
Shadow Shamanqueezy
Ogre MagiHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 76%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2