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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 17 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Hduo · 14 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 14 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 13 games
54%

Kalmychata

Sven
Sven
rincyq · 5 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
Mirage · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 2 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mirage · 2 games
50%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
aik · 2 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
aik · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
555 picks · 636 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
489 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
462 picks · 414 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
413 picks · 855 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
407 picks · 459 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
389 picks · 566 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
389 picks · 347 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 531 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Runa Team 74%Kalmychata 26%
The model gave 74% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Game 2prediction correct
Runa Team 74%Kalmychata 26%
The model gave 74% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 74%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2