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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 3:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 3:0
HULIGANIloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 34 games
59%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 32 games
66%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 32 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 31 game
74%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 31 game
45%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 30 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 25 games
60%

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 23 games
61%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 18 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 17 games
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 16 games
56%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 15 games
47%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 15 games
73%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
RESPECT · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
378 picks · 342 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 857 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
331 picks · 168 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
293 picks · 336 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 791 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
281 picks · 248 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
280 picks · 127 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
273 picks · 688 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:12
Runa Team 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 42:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealernesfeer
55% · 144 games43% · 238 games
Pangoliererase
Pangolier
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAlberkaaa
55% · 256 games48% · 158 games
DawnbreakerBb3px
Dawnbreaker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
58% · 72 games51% · 148 games
Ursav1olent-
Ursa
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
45% · 204 games43% · 101 game
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroHduo
51% · 166 games51% · 197 games
Clockwerkslimeyao
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct30:6
Runa Team 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
47% · 145 games45% · 77 games
Troll Warlordv1olent-
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightnesfeer
52% · 234 games46% · 331 game
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAlberkaaa
52% · 176 games52% · 173 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
54% · 280 games51% · 219 games
SnapfireRESPECT
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorHduo
53% · 191 game48% · 226 games
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct24:18
Runa Team 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 31:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordnesfeer
56% · 58 games47% · 161 game
Svenv1olent-
Sven
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
52% · 183 games52% · 176 games
Shadow Fienderase
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
49% · 244 games40% · 189 games
DawnbreakerBb3px
Dawnbreaker
Warlock
WarlockHduo
50% · 174 games53% · 113 games
Elder TitanRESPECT
Elder Titan
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
50% · 191 game53% · 211 games
Disruptorslimeyao
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 58%
Series resultRuna Team 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3