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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 32 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 31 game
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 18 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 18 games
56%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 17 games
59%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 9 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
young G · 8 games
50%
Sven
Svenoften banned
bashka · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 8 games
25%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
xsvampire · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bashka · 7 games
14%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
xsvampire · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 587 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
395 picks · 400 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
376 picks · 399 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 508 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
344 picks · 207 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
327 picks · 698 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
320 picks · 611 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
319 picks · 793 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:2
Runa Team 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 23:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Snipernicky`cool
43% · 88 games45% · 196 games
Terrorbladebashka
Terrorblade
Lycan
LycanAlberkaaa
54% · 77 games45% · 200 games
DawnbreakerCovisnine
Dawnbreaker
Monkey King
Monkey Kingnesfeer
53% · 161 game42% · 41 game
Death Prophetyoung G
Death Prophet
Pugna
PugnaHduo
58% · 124 games52% · 38 games
DisruptorMary_y
Disruptor
Lion
Lionqueezy
55% · 200 games54% · 175 games
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct42:14
Runa Team 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 31:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinnesfeer
56% · 195 games50% · 293 games
Storm Spirityoung G
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
49% · 308 games52% · 167 games
Morphlingbashka
Morphling
Abaddon
AbaddonAlberkaaa
51% · 167 games46% · 101 game
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetqueezy
54% · 234 games49% · 254 games
Batriderxsvampire
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorHduo
45% · 100 games46% · 189 games
WarlockMary_y
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 64%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2