DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 32 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 29 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 26 games
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 23 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 23 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 22 games
Nemiga Gaming
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 23 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 15 games
Marssignature
Covisnine · 15 games
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 13 games
Windranger
xsvampire · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
296 picks · 732 bans
Disruptor
276 picks · 252 bans
Shadow Shaman
273 picks · 176 bans
Dawnbreaker
258 picks · 674 bans
Pugna
255 picks · 274 bans
Tusk
250 picks · 245 bans
Marci
247 picks · 675 bans
Nature's Prophet
246 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:26
Runa Team 54%Nemiga Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 48:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealernesfeer
Lunabashka
Timbersawnicky`cool
Invokeryoung G
EarthshakerAlberkaaa
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
Snapfirequeezy
Shadow Demonxsvampire
ClockwerkHduo
Game 2prediction correct30:18
Runa Team 54%Nemiga Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordnesfeer
Templar Assassinbashka
HuskarAlberkaaa
Invokeryoung G
Earthshakernicky`cool
SlardarCovisnine
ChenHduo
Batriderxsvampire
Snapfirequeezy
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 57%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2