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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windrangersignature
queezy · 11 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 10 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 9 games
78%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
queezy · 7 games
71%
Warlock
Warlock
Mary_y · 5 games
40%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mary_y · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 4 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
Hduo · 4 games
75%

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 15 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 15 games
40%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 14 games
29%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Nine · 13 games
46%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 13 games
46%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nine · 12 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 11 games
27%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 11 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
474 picks · 470 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 569 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
337 picks · 156 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
282 picks · 529 bans
47%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
281 picks · 578 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
268 picks · 499 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
267 picks · 576 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
267 picks · 150 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 27%
Hero pool strength64% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:34
Runa Team 44%OG 56%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by Runa Team in 56:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
51% · 468 games45% · 177 games
SvenShad
Sven
Slark
SlarkShigetsu
61% · 88 games50% · 160 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
51% · 291 game43% · 353 games
BeastmasterStormstormer
Beastmaster
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
47% · 246 games51% · 327 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionHduo
57% · 131 game46% · 207 games
WindrangerDaze
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct19:38
Runa Team 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 42:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShigetsu
54% · 151 game46% · 211 games
TerrorbladeMikSa`
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
51% · 193 games52% · 404 games
TinyShad
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
53% · 424 games53% · 104 games
SlardarStormstormer
Slardar
Windranger
Windrangerqueezy
50% · 240 games45% · 156 games
RingmasterKidaro
Ringmaster
Silencer
SilencerHduo
53% · 149 games41% · 282 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct15:31
Runa Team 44%OG 56%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
42% · 158 games51% · 522 games
TinyShad
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
59% · 350 games37% · 30 games
Wraith KingMikSa`
Wraith King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
49% · 364 games54% · 233 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
47% · 277 games48% · 192 games
WindrangerDaze
Windranger
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionHduo
54% · 159 games50% · 331 game
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 68%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3