FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Windrangersignature
queezy · 10 games
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 9 games
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
queezy · 7 games
Warlock
Mary_y · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mary_y · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 4 games
Slarkoften banned
Shigetsu · 4 games
OG
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 16 games
Earth Spirit
Nine · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 13 games
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 12 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nine · 12 games
Muerta
Daze · 12 games
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 12 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
470 picks · 467 bans
Tiny
405 picks · 569 bans
Ringmaster
334 picks · 151 bans
Phantom Assassin
283 picks · 579 bans
Terrorblade
280 picks · 524 bans
Bristleback
268 picks · 492 bans
Beastmaster
266 picks · 572 bans
Muerta
265 picks · 149 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 24%
Hero pool strength68% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:37
Runa Team 46%OG 54%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetShigetsu
Templar AssassinShad
TerrorbladeAlberkaaa
InvokerStormstormer
Tinynicky`cool
PangolierMikSa`
SilencerHduo
MuertaDaze
Windrangerqueezy
WarlockKidaro
Game 2prediction correct7:24
Runa Team 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaShigetsu
TinyShad
AbaddonAlberkaaa
PuckStormstormer
Monkey Kingnicky`cool
PangolierMikSa`
Tinkerqueezy
MuertaDaze
RingmasterHduo
WarlockKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 63%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2