Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 27 games
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 18 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 11 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 10 games
One Move
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 24 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 20 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 19 games
Jakiro
Bb3px · 18 games
Clockwerk
Gilgir · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
522 picks · 600 bans
Ringmaster
470 picks · 237 bans
Jakiro
466 picks · 433 bans
Terrorblade
369 picks · 772 bans
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 509 bans
Ancient Apparition
341 picks · 788 bans
Tusk
327 picks · 297 bans
Shadow Shaman
312 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:32
Runa Team 48%One Move 52%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackShigetsu
UrsaEyesight
Tinynicky`cool
Void SpiritDifference
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Death ProphetCorrupted
Batriderqueezy
Shadow DemonGilgir
SilencerHduo
DisruptorBb3px
Game 2prediction correct22:30
Runa Team 49%One Move 51%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaShigetsu
TerrorbladeEyesight
Tinynicky`cool
Primal BeastCorrupted
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
SlardarDifference
Shadow Shamanqueezy
Dark WillowGilgir
DisruptorHduo
TuskBb3px
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 60%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2