CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OxinGameloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 36 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 35 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 35 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 33 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 32 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 26 games
OxinGame
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
448 picks · 421 bans
Snapfire
438 picks · 222 bans
Puck
351 picks · 932 bans
Pugna
324 picks · 371 bans
Warlock
296 picks · 148 bans
Tusk
292 picks · 225 bans
Batrider
281 picks · 660 bans
Queen of Pain
280 picks · 852 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 36%
Hero pool strength57% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:25
Runa Team 90%OxinGame 10%
The model gave 90% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 13:41.
Game 2prediction correct50:24
Runa Team 90%OxinGame 10%
The model gave 90% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 33:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 90%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2