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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
nicky`cool · 3 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Alberkaaa · 2 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Mary_y · 2 games
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
queezy · 2 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Mary_y · 2 games
100%
Sven
Sven
Shigetsu · 2 games
100%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 2 games
50%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 28 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 27 games
41%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 23 games
39%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 21 game
48%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 19 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
kreker · 18 games
39%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 667 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
417 picks · 409 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
351 picks · 726 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
327 picks · 622 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 523 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
314 picks · 187 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
303 picks · 590 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
295 picks · 273 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:24
Runa Team 44%Passion UA 56%
The model gave 56% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Runa Team in 44:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShigetsu
51% · 131 game56% · 118 games
Nature's ProphetCrystallize
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
45% · 189 games51% · 179 games
Monkey Kingniche
Monkey King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
47% · 149 games51% · 210 games
Sand KingBatyuk
Sand King
Windranger
Windrangerqueezy
47% · 194 games49% · 167 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMary_y
52% · 51 game53% · 40 games
Banekreker
Bane
Game 2prediction missed36:15
Runa Team 45%Passion UA 55%
The model gave 55% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Runa Team in 37:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingShigetsu
56% · 117 games55% · 142 games
Nature's ProphetCrystallize
Nature's Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
49% · 93 games50% · 99 games
Queen of Painniche
Queen of Pain
Batrider
Batridernicky`cool
44% · 106 games43% · 40 games
Wraith KingBatyuk
Wraith King
Windranger
Windrangerqueezy
48% · 111 games48% · 101 game
Bounty HunterQBFY
Bounty Hunter
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMary_y
54% · 82 games47% · 127 games
Ringmasterkreker
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 62%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2