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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Royal Jellyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 50 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 48 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 47 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 43 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 41 game
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 37 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
70%

Royal Jelly

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Stojkov · 3 games
67%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
ani-san · 2 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ani-san · 2 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
Miyaoo · 2 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
ani-san · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
730 picks · 348 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
602 picks · 634 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
512 picks · 264 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
430 picks · 1174 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
421 picks · 693 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
421 picks · 269 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
408 picks · 435 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
362 picks · 226 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:24
Runa Team 71%Royal Jelly 29%
The model gave 71% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
Huskarnicky`cool
54% · 35 games52% · 82 games
SniperStojkov
Sniper
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightnesfeer
53% · 166 games43% · 213 games
Queen of PainMiyaoo
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
43% · 104 games52% · 122 games
Ringmasterani-san
Ringmaster
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magequeezy
52% · 19 games
Pugna
PugnaHduo
56% · 93 games
Game 2prediction missed14:30
Runa Team 71%Royal Jelly 29%
The model gave 71% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Royal Jelly in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
53% · 151 game51% · 184 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
48% · 179 games44% · 191 game
SlardarMiyaoo
Slardar
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightnesfeer
59% · 170 games47% · 398 games
Hoodwinkani-san
Hoodwink
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
50% · 229 games
Dazzle
DazzleHduo
53% · 44 games
Game 3prediction correct37:20
Runa Team 72%Royal Jelly 28%
The model gave 72% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 37:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonnesfeer
50% · 230 games55% · 196 games
Nature's ProphetStojkov
Nature's Prophet
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
63% · 67 games40% · 259 games
PangolierMiyaoo
Pangolier
Huskar
HuskarAlberkaaa
54% · 43 games44% · 279 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
48% · 199 games
Pugna
PugnaHduo
53% · 195 games
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 85%
Series resultRuna Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3