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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TNL DOTAwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 32 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 31 game
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 23 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 19 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 19 games
74%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 18 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
61%

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 19 games
47%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 18 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 16 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 13 games
62%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 11 games
73%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 589 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 421 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
370 picks · 372 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
366 picks · 217 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
334 picks · 703 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 842 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
313 picks · 635 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Runa Team 58%TNL DOTA 42%
The model gave 58% on Runa Team — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 58%
Series resultTNL DOTA 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1