DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:2series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 57 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 53 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 53 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 46 games
Warlocksignature
Hduo · 43 games
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 36 games
Terrorbladesignature
nesfeer · 36 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 35 games
Tundra Esports
Axesignature
33 · 38 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 32 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 30 games
Pugna
Whitemon · 30 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
Abaddonoften banned
Pure~ · 24 games
Tusk
Saksa · 20 games
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
778 picks · 361 bans
Hoodwink
610 picks · 303 bans
Jakiro
586 picks · 498 bans
Dragon Knight
571 picks · 713 bans
Disruptor
554 picks · 552 bans
Tusk
539 picks · 323 bans
Mars
509 picks · 758 bans
Centaur Warrunner
502 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:31
Runa Team 25%Tundra Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopternesfeer
JuggernautPure~
Timbersawnicky`cool
Storm Spiritbzm
SlardarAlberkaaa
Doom33
Snapfirequeezy
WarlockWhitemon
TuskHduo
Dark WillowAri
Game 2prediction correct16:34
Runa Team 22%Tundra Esports 78%
The model gave 78% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Timbersaw33
SlardarAlberkaaa
MarciPure~
Tinynicky`cool
Invokerbzm
Shadow Demonqueezy
Dark WillowAri
WarlockHduo
BaneWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 92%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2