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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Virtus.proloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 30 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nicky`cool · 17 games
59%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 15 games
53%

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 20 games
55%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 18 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
44%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Antares · 14 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
516 picks · 549 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 426 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 377 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 510 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 707 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
310 picks · 558 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
307 picks · 196 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 437 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:36
Runa Team 48%Virtus.pro 52%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
44% · 76 games55% · 131 game
Templar AssassinV-Tune
Templar Assassin
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
49% · 349 games49% · 131 game
DawnbreakerDaxak
Dawnbreaker
Axe
AxeAlberkaaa
46% · 65 games51% · 90 games
Primal BeastSerenada
Primal Beast
Rubick
Rubickqueezy
51% · 118 games56% · 214 games
MagnusOneJey
Magnus
Dazzle
DazzleHduo
41% · 48 games56% · 90 games
PugnaRein
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed52:28
Runa Team 49%Virtus.pro 51%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Runa Team in 42:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainShigetsu
50% · 122 games50% · 33 games
SpectreV-Tune
Spectre
Monkey King
Monkey Kingnicky`cool
58% · 148 games50% · 267 games
Ember SpiritSerenada
Ember Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetqueezy
55% · 168 games51% · 263 games
TerrorbladeDaxak
Terrorblade
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
42% · 94 games47% · 194 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
Tusk
TuskHduo
48% · 234 games52% · 9 games
PudgeOneJey
Pudge
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2