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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 31 game
58%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nicky`cool · 17 games
59%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 17 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 15 games
53%

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 17 games
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 13 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
33%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 12 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
534 picks · 558 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 419 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 388 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 514 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 714 bans
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 197 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 588 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 438 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Runa Team 62%Yellow Submarine 38%
The model gave 62% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 2prediction correct
Runa Team 62%Yellow Submarine 38%
The model gave 62% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Game 3prediction missed
Runa Team 62%Yellow Submarine 38%
The model gave 62% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 62%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3