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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 16 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 11 games
45%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
queezy · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Alberkaaa · 6 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 33 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 31 game
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 30 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
28%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 25 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 25 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
487 picks · 478 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 549 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
353 picks · 160 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
283 picks · 533 bans
47%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
263 picks · 538 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
262 picks · 146 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
261 picks · 368 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
260 picks · 574 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:45
Runa Team 42%Zero Tenacity 58%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand Kingnicky`cool
45% · 148 games51% · 125 games
Nature's ProphetStojkov
Nature's Prophet
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
54% · 162 games50% · 233 games
Dark SeerNefrit
Dark Seer
Enigma
EnigmaAlberkaaa
56% · 81 game54% · 81 game
EarthshakerPablo
Earthshaker
Windranger
Windrangerqueezy
48% · 183 games53% · 65 games
SlarkNande
Slark
Silencer
SilencerHduo
40% · 65 games51% · 135 games
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed42:31
Runa Team 42%Zero Tenacity 58%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Runa Team in 49:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenShigetsu
45% · 209 games53% · 173 games
Dark SeerNefrit
Dark Seer
Batrider
Batridernicky`cool
52% · 215 games50% · 59 games
RazorNande
Razor
Tidehunter
TidehunterAlberkaaa
50% · 156 games52% · 195 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Slark
Slarkqueezy
42% · 78 games52% · 95 games
EarthshakerPablo
Earthshaker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionHduo
52% · 130 games51% · 266 games
JakiroLeBronDota
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed29:11
Runa Team 42%Zero Tenacity 58%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Runa Team in 23:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinShigetsu
51% · 95 games54% · 132 games
Nature's ProphetNande
Nature's Prophet
Wraith King
Wraith KingAlberkaaa
44% · 28 games45% · 107 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
44% · 161 game55% · 115 games
SlardarStojkov
Slardar
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
50% · 286 games51% · 182 games
WindrangerPablo
Windranger
Warlock
WarlockHduo
52% · 70 games53% · 104 games
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 66%
Series resultRuna Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3