Asgard Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaters Arisewin 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ilbirs eSportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters Arise
Hoodwink
waveformn · 5 games
Marcioften banned
waveformn · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Ethereal · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
Tusk
waveformn · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ankou · 2 games
Clinkzoften banned
yowaai · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 2 games
Ilbirs eSports
Hoodwinksignature
Ponlo · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 11 games
Dark Willow
Zayac · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 9 games
Alchemistsignature
Kami · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 8 games
Tinyoften banned
chempik · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
497 picks · 361 bans
Clockwerk
361 picks · 646 bans
Bane
343 picks · 387 bans
Rubick
338 picks · 192 bans
Tiny
318 picks · 346 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 451 bans
Windranger
305 picks · 231 bans
Storm Spirit
301 picks · 326 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Rune Eaters Arise
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:20
Rune Eaters Arise 49%Ilbirs eSports 51%
The model gave 51% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Rune Eaters Arise in 33:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druidyowaai
Broodmother423
Ember SpiritEthereal
NecrophosNorma
LargoAnkou
Puckniche
Lionxsvampire
MarciFernans
Ringmasterani-san
BanePonlo
Game 2prediction missed17:32
Rune Eaters Arise 51%Ilbirs eSports 49%
The model gave 51% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 42:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinyyowaai
Shadow Fiend423
BrewmasterAnkou
Storm Spiritniche
Ember SpiritEthereal
UnderlordNorma
Dark Willowxsvampire
Keeper of the LightFernans
Baneani-san
Winter WyvernPonlo
Game 3prediction missed38:33
Rune Eaters Arise 49%Ilbirs eSports 51%
The model gave 51% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Rune Eaters Arise in 49:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinyowaai
Necrophosniche
Ember SpiritEthereal
Kez423
Miranaxsvampire
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
DoomAnkou
HoodwinkFernans
Winter Wyvernani-san
BanePonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 52%
Series resultRune Eaters Arise 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3